What changed in the prediction engine and product, why, and the expected impact. High-level only — model internals are kept private.
Replaced fixed target-odds tickets with risk profiles (Conservative / Balanced / Aggressive) plus criteria (min confidence, min edge, markets, leagues, number of selections, preferred bookmaker). Each selection shows model probability, implied probability and edge; correlated legs prevented. Added regenerate, lock/remove, "why this ticket" and copy/share.
Added Brier score, log loss and average model edge; accuracy computed live from settled predictions everywhere; published a public performance API and a performance methodology page.
Exponential-decay form over the last 15 matches; rest-days / fixture-congestion factor for goal markets; improved probability clamping.
Match-profile classification feeding per-market scoring; Dixon-Coles Poisson core with home/away splits; risk filter for contradictory signals; one prediction per match.
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